By: Max Blumenfeld and Zachary Asarnow
Almost three-fourths of the almost $400 billion generated annually by space-related industries is within the commercial satellite industry alone. These satellites are crucial for television, banking, communication, and navigation, and the industry is expected to grow $1.8 trillion by 2035. Satellites, however, largely operate in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), where area is limited and the threat of damaging space debris is especially prominent.
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) estimates that upwards of one million fragments of space debris over one centimeter in size are in orbit and that most of these are in LEO. These fragments include over 23,000 pieces larger than ten centimeters. With velocities exceeding 17,500 miles per hour, even a one-centimeter-sized piece of debris can cause catastrophic damage upon impact, potentially leading to the loss of satellites and other critical orbital infrastructures.
Our growing reliance on satellites and the increasing presence of debris set the stage for potential economic disaster. Debris threatens the International Space Station (ISS), space travel, and the over 8,000 satellites in orbit. Debris mitigation efforts are already estimated to cost tens of millions of dollars annually. With over 60,000 satellites expected to be in orbit by 2030, space debris is a major threat to the rapid development of the future space economy.
What is Space Debris?
Space debris ranges from defunct satellites to spent rocket stages and fragments from previous missions. Vast clouds of debris pose a formidable challenge to the continued operation of satellites, spacecraft, and other assets in orbit. Orbital debris is becoming so abundant that astronauts in the ISS have had to seek shelter from debris collisions with the station. The phenomenon known as the Kessler Effect, wherein collisions between debris generate more debris in a cascading chain reaction, could further exacerbate the problem, potentially rendering entire orbital regions inaccessible.
Addressing this issue requires a multifaceted approach that combines technological innovation, regulatory frameworks, and international cooperation. Government policies play an important role in shaping the response to this challenge. Many legislative measures are designed to incentivize debris mitigation efforts and foster responsible space practices. Regulations governing satellite launches, orbital operations, and end-of-life disposal aim to prevent debris proliferation.
However, the effective implementation of policies to manage space debris poses an international collective action problem: Although countries would benefit most from collaboration, they often follow individual incentives and ‘free ride,’ causing insufficient global cooperation.
Seeking Private Solutions
While government regulation has the potential to curb space debris proliferation, a transition from public to private effort offers a promising paradigm shift. At the forefront of this shift are companies and research institutions working to develop novel solutions for debris monitoring, tracking, and removal. Many initiatives are underway to tackle the space debris problem head-on, such as advanced sensor technologies and spacecraft capable of debris capture.
Public-private partnerships have fostered innovation and efficiency in space debris mitigation efforts. An example of this is the Orbital Prime program, spearheaded by SpaceWERX, also known as the “Innovation Arm of the Space Force.” The program’s vision to develop technologies and architecture to enable a sustainable space infrastructure has led it to award 124 Phase 1 contracts–$250,000 grants designed to nurture potential research institutions and firms–to 158 recipients. Initiatives like the Orbital Prime program harness the expertise of both sectors to tackle space debris challenges effectively. The Open Architecture Data Repository proposed by the National Space Council could enhance awareness of space traffic, and facilitate collaboration between government agencies and the private sector contributing to more effective debris monitoring and removal efforts.
Moreover, the burgeoning market for space debris monitoring and removal presents lucrative opportunities for investment. According to recent market research, the global space debris monitoring and removal market is currently valued at approximately $940.69 million and is expected to surpass $2 billion by 2032 due to growing concerns over space sustainability. This market encompasses a wide range of technologies and services to track, mitigate, and ultimately remove debris from Earth’s orbit, safeguarding critical space assets and infrastructure. An example of this is the Switzerland-based startup company ClearSpace, which already has plans for innovation and generating revenue, having accepted contracts to deorbit debris using an autonomous robot.
Florida
The threat of space debris is a shadow looming over the optimism and excitement otherwise surrounding the space economy in Florida. It threatens the prosperity of the industry that generates billions of dollars in revenue and supports thousands of high-skilled jobs. Florida now stands at a crossroads, poised to navigate the complexities of an increasingly crowded orbital environment. Beyond the immediate cost of satellite incapacitation and the potential loss of revenue, a broader financial burden stems from the risk posed by debris. Recent studies estimated the annual cost of space debris collisions to be between $86 and $103 million, as of 2020, accounting for factors such as satellite replacement costs, service disruption, and insurance premiums. The results predict a stark picture of the economic toll of space debris, highlighting the urgent need for mitigation efforts.
However, with concerted government, industry, and academic efforts, Florida can navigate this cosmic frontier and emerge stronger than before. By encouraging innovative technologies, fostering collaboration among stakeholders, and enacting forward-thinking policies, Florida can lead the way in shaping the future of space exploration and commerce while ensuring long-term sustainable utilization of Earth’s orbit.
Edited by Riley Tiernan and Chloe Offutt
Max Blumenfeld is a fourth year economics and international affairs student minoring in Russian language and mathematics. He leads the DMC’s Aerospace team in conducting research on the economic impact of space debris and is an employee of Florida Policy Project. Originally from Germany, Max is multilingual, speaking fluent German and intermediate French and Russian. He loves astronomy and enjoys backpacking and the outdoors.
Zachary Asarnow is a third-year Economics major with a minor in STEM Entrepreneurship at Florida State University. Originally from Orlando, Florida, he is a member of FSU’s chapter of Students for the Exploration and Development of Space (SEDS) and attended the Space Vision Conference in Washington, D.C., which deepened his passion for space. Zachary is also actively involved in the field of Synthetic Biology through FSU’s International Genetically Engineered Machine (iGEM) team and research conducted at the Institute of Pediatric Rare Diseases.
Works Cited:
Adilov, Nodir, Vitali Braun, Peter Alexander, and Brendan Cunningham. 2023. “An Estimate of Expected Economic Losses from Satellite Collisions with Orbital Debris.” Journal of Space Safety Engineering 10 (1): 66–69. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsse.2023.01.002.
Colvin, Thomas, John Karcz, and Grace Wusk. 2023. “Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy Cost and Benefit Analysis of Orbital Debris Remediation.” https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20230002817/downloads/2023%20-%20OTPS%20-%20Cost%20and%20Benefit%20Analysis%20of%20Orbital%20Debris%20Remediation%20-%2020230308v2.pdf
Errick, Kristen. “NASA, FCC Address Growing Issue of Orbital Debris.” 2022. Nextgov.com. September 15, 2022. https://www.nextgov.com/digital-government/2022/09/nasa-fcc-address-growing-issue-orbital-debris/377193/
“ESA’S ANNUAL SPACE ENVIRONMENT REPORT.” n.d. September 12, 2023. https://www.sdo.esoc.esa.int/publications/Space_Environment_Report_I7R1_20230912.pdf.
“Hypervelocity Impacts and Protecting Spacecraft.” n.d. http://www.esa.int. https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/Space_Debris/Hypervelocity_impacts_and_protecting_spacecraft.
Ieva. 2023. “How Many Satellites Are in Space?” NanoAvionics. May 4, 2023. https://nanoavionics.com/blog/how-many-satellites-are-in-space/#:~:text=As%20of%20January%203rd%202024
Kettley, Sebastian. 2020. “Astronomers Warn We Need to Pay More Attention to Space Debris.” Express.co.uk. September 24, 2020. https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1339612/Space-debris-threat-satellites-astronomy-space-news
LLP, Polaris Market Research & Consulting. 2023. “Space Debris Monitoring and Removal Market Projected to Reach USD 2,068.80 Million, at 8.2% CAGR by 2032: Global Report by Polaris Market Research.” GlobeNewswire News Room. November 3, 2023. https://www.globenewswire.com/en/news-release/2023/11/03/2772975/0/en/Space-Debris-Monitoring-and-Removal-Market-Projected-to-Reach-USD-2-068-80-Million-at-8-2-CAGR-By-2032-Global-Report-by-Polaris-Market-Research.html#:~:text=Global%20space%20debris%20monitoring%20and
“NASA Generates Billions in Economic Impact for Florida, Space Coast – NASA.” 2022. June 8, 2022. https://www.nasa.gov/general/nasa-generates-billions-in-economic-impact-for-florida-space-coast/
Newman, Christopher J., and Mark Williamson. “Space Sustainability: Reframing the Debate.” Space Policy 46, (2018): 30-37. Accessed February 28, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spacepol.2018.03.001
Robinson-Smith, Will. “Florida Tech Partners with Industry to Tackle Growing Space Junk Problem.” n.d. Mynews13.com. Accessed February 28, 2024. https://mynews13.com/fl/orlando/news/2023/04/02/florida-tech-partners-with-industry-to-tackle-space-junk-problem
Satellite Industry Association. 2024. Review of Commercial Satellite Industry Continues Historic Growth While Dominating Global Space Business. SIA News & Resources. Satellite Industry Association. June 13, 2024. https://sia.org/commercial-satellite-industry-continues-historic-growth-dominating-global-space-business-27th-annual-state-of-the-satellite-industry-report/
Van Burken, Rebecca, and Adrian Moore. 2021. “U.S. SPACE TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT and ORBITAL DEBRIS POLICY.” https://reason.org/wp-content/uploads/us-space-traffic-management-and-orbital-debris-policy.pdf
World Economic Forum. 2024. “Space Economy Set to Triple to $1.8 Trillion by 2035, New Research Reveals.” World Economic Forum. 2024. https://www.weforum.org/press/2024/04/space-economy-set-to-triple-to-1-8-trillion-by-2035-new-research-reveals/
